The expiration of New START marks a historic break in U.S.-Russia arms control, removing legal limits and transparency measures that governed strategic nuclear forces for over a decade. While reports hint at a temporary, informal observance of limits, it would lack inspections or enforcement. President Trump has pushed for a new, modernized deal rather than extending the old one. Absent a verifiable successor, experts warn predictability and stability are at risk.
New START expired Feb 5, 2026, ending binding U.S.-Russia nuclear caps and inspections. An Axios report suggests a possible informal, non-binding observance of limits, but nothing finalized—raising fears of instability without verification. #NewSTART #NuclearArms #US #Russia pic.twitter.com/PQvgx2ZfDw
— Matthew Brady (@mattbrady775) February 5, 2026
- The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, ending the last legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
- When active, it capped 1,550 deployed warheads, 700 deployed launchers, and 800 total launchers, with inspections and data exchanges.
- Russia suspended inspections and data sharing in 2023; verification had already been paused since 2020.
- With expiration, the U.S. and Russia now have no binding caps or verification for the first time since the early 1970s.
- An Axios report says the sides may informally observe the numerical limits post-expiration (non-binding, no inspections), pending approval by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
- Trump has criticized New START as poorly negotiated and prefers a new, broader treaty, potentially including China.
- Russia has expressed regret over expiration and proposed voluntary restraint without verification.
- The United Nations warned the lapse is a “grave moment” for global security.
